19 Aug 0
A new study produced by researchers from the University of Cambridge and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research predicts that average global temperatures will rise by more than 4°C by 2100 based on current trajectories. It claims that all nations will be impacted whether rich or poor, hot or cold. The study used data from 174 countries dating back to 1960 to reach its findings.
Adopting a business-as-usual approach to climate change mitigation and carbon emissions will also impact the global GDP, reducing it by 7% the close of the century. The UK economy will decrease by an estimated 4% with the USA, Japan, India, New Zealand, Russia and Switzerland will all suffer losses of 10%. Along with the global fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), there will also be an increase in severe and extreme weather events which will add further stress to national economies.
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, a co-author of the study from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics stated that “Whether cold snaps or heat waves, droughts, floods or natural disasters, all deviations of climate conditions from their historical norms have adverse economic effects. Without mitigation and adaptation policies, many countries are likely to experience sustained temperature increases relative to historical norms and suffer major income losses as a result. This holds for both rich and poor countries as well as hot and cold regions.”
The researchers did note that GDP loss can be limited under a scenario in which the world gets its act together and delivers the aims of the Paris Agreement. Under this scenario, countries such as the USA could limit losses to under 2% of national GDP.
The European Union agency, Eurofound, has asserted that meeting the Paris Agreement target will improve global GDP and boost investment. According to their research the Global GDP would improve by 0.1% by 2030 and EU nations will benefit from a 1.1% rise in average GDP. It is, therefore vital that delivery of the Paris Agreement, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, must not be seen as a burden to the domestic or global economies. Almost a sixth of the entire global GDP is now covered by net-zero carbon emissions targets. With determined action to reduce emissions, driven by the major powers of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must come together to drive and support significant change across the globe to protect the planet and its economy for future generations.